New DMI-report on future climate change in Denmark

Flooding due to sea-level rise will be more frequent in the future. Photo: DMI, taken by Hans Chr. Katberg Olrik Thoft.

Temperature and winter-precipitation will increase, the sea-level will rise and Denmark will experience more frequent and more severe extreme weather events.

Those are the main conclusion in a new report on future climate change in Denmark by the DMI. The estimations on the expected climate change in Denmark are based on the latest Danish and European scenario calculations focusing on climate change towards the end of this century. The assessment of future climate change is based on the scenarios used by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The report clearly points out, that extreme weather events, like heatwaves, heavy rainfall and flooding due to sea-level rise, will become more normal if the future greenhouse gas-concentration will follow the present trajectory, shown by the business-as-usual scenario, RCP8.5. For instance, a 100 year-flooding event will happen every 2 years in 2100, if no action against climate change is taken.

Climate simulations and understanding of associated uncertainties are constantly being improved and the report presents the latest projections, calculated on a base of an ensemble of CMIP5 climate models (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5), which is more robust than estimates based on a single model.

The report is written in Danish and is available here.