The Danish Meteorological Institute has an extensive international scientific record within regional climate modelling (RCM) and is the leading national authority on regional climate change projections.
We have focus on future climate projections as a consequence of the anthropogenic greenhouse emissions as well as interannual to multidecadal climate fluctuations and predictability. To investigate interactions and feedback mechanisms between atmosphere, ocean, land surface and ice on a larger scale, we also operate Global Climate Models.
We participate in a number of international RCM projects and have a prominent role in Europe as data host for regional climate projections. We work closely together with scientists and researchers in Denmark and internationally.
Ocean and ice play an important role in climate change and adaptation research. DMI’s regional marine climate research is based on high quality operational models for the Baltic-North Sea and Arctic-North Atlantic Ocean. The marine hindcast, reanalysis and projections have been used in many social benefit areas such as offshore energy, maritime transport, fishery management, coastal management and climate assessment etc.
DMI has participated in a number of international projects directed towards a variety of climate related research and development areas and as Danish Focal Point to the IPCC.
ABC4CDE / DECM : Assuring Best practiCes for Climate model Data Evaluation
Project aims: There are four core requirements for climate data provision: integrity, transparency, humility (in the sense of not presenting information as more than it is, nor less than it is), and collaboration; A well-designed framework for metadata and data structure helps approaching these goals. Data should be transparently obtainable and visible and the degree of quality indicated. Thus, the evaluation and quality control (EQC) framework aiming to fulfill this goal is essential for both the scientific and public audience. ABC4CDE targets assessments of user requirements, science and gaps in climate model data delivery concerning CMIP and Euro-CORDEX data. It focuses strongly on user requirements, data inventory and scientific assessment and gap analysis to formulate user-friendly and fit-for-purpose indicators, tools and services to be recommended for the C3S EQC framework.
DMI’s role: DMI will contribute to all aspects of the project. The main efforts are within the tasks associated with the scientific assessment and gap analysis. Here a particular focus is on defining basic tests of the suitability of impacts methods and models, a review of different approaches will be performed and emerging commonalities and recommendations will be extracted as an integral part of the EQC.
Funding: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S); ECMWF
Period: Aug. 1 2016 - October 31, 2018.
Collaborators: The ABC4CDE team consists of 8 partners, led by the Finnish Meteorological Institute.
CoDEC (C3S_422_Lot2 CoDEC – ECMWF Copernicus Procurement)
Project aims: To deliver a climate change operational data service for the european coasts, where the user can see "climate impact indicators" for their coastal area.
DMI's role: To select propagation for waterstand and wave models from atmospheric reanalysis and climate models and test downscaling with Harmonie (NEA) for selected storms. And to make a case for Køge Bay, with water modeling (HBM) and waves (WAM) under selected storms / storm floods in the Baltic Sea, in ongoing dialogue with the Coastal Directorate, which is associated with the project as a user.orecasting of weather dependent road conditions, in particular the formation of ice.
CRES: The Centre for Regional Change in the Earth System (link: english (external))
Project aims: Adaptation to climate change requires whenever possible, understanding and quantification of how human activities and natural processes affect human and natural systems. The CRES mission is to establish a coordinated research effort of high relevance to societal preparedness for climate change and to enhance Denmark’s contribution to international climate change research.
DMI’s role: CRES is led from DMI by DKC and contributes with further development of and climate simulations performed by the regional climate model HIRHAM5 to the CRES group.
Funding: Danish Council of Strategic Research
Period: Oct 2009 – Feb 2015
Collaborators: Danish Meteorological Institute, Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Aarhus University, Faculty of Life Sciences, University of Copenhagen, Faculty of Science, University of Copenhagen, The Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, National Environmental Institute, Aarhus University, DTU Climate Centre, Technical University of Denmark, Danish Hydraulic Institute, Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Local Government Denmark, The Danish Water and Waste Water Association, The Danish Insurance Association, Knowledge Centre for Agriculture, The Danish Agricultural Advisory Services
Participants from DMI: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen and Martin Olesen
Data base for climate adaptation needs in Greenland
Project aims: The data base will consist of climate scenarios for Greenland, exemplified by a series of basic climate indices presented for the non-ice covered land area and coastal areas of Greenland. A catalogue presenting the likely change at near term, mid-century and by the end of the 21st century will be constructed and presented on a web-site. The data will be extracted and presented in a report alongside various assessments of the likely uncertainty ranges.
DMI's role: DMI will carry out HIRHAM climate scenarios using HIRHAM at 5 km resolution and produce a report documenting these in a format useful for decision making in Greenland, including those by the Self Government. The results will be presented on a workshop organized together with the Self Government at Katuaq in Nuuk in November 2015.
Funding: DANCEA / Danish Energy Agency and VEK / Greenland Ministry of Nature, Environment and Justice
Period: Jan 1, 2015 – Dec 31, 2015
Collaborators: Government of Greenland, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Justice; Asiaq
Defrost (Link: www.ncoe-defrost.org)
Project aims: The aim of DEFROST (Impact of a changing cryosphere - Depicting ecosystem-climate feedbacks from permafrost, snow and ice) is to understand how climate change induced changes in the cryosphere influence the ecosystem/geosphere processes which directly affect climate. We will focus on key terrestrial, lacustrine and marine cryospheric components that have the potential for giving rise to substantial changes in climate feedback mechanisms both in terms of surface-atmosphere energy exchange and exchanges of greenhouse gases. DEFROST seeks to bridge existing gaps between climate modeling, cryospheric science, and Arctic ecosystem science.
DMI’s role: Improved parameterisation of permafrost, snow and ice related processes is being incorporated in the existing Regional Climate Models RCA (Sweden), HIRHAM (Denmark) and later in HARMONIE (International). The impact on changes in regional cryospheric/climate scenarios is investigated, beneficial also to the DEFROST user community and in terms of impacts and adaptation, by a provision of more elaborated regional scenarios. A novel element is the implementation of a sub-sea permafrost model in the HIRHAM-HYCOM coupled system for the Arctic based on the GIPL permafrost model develop in UAF in Alaska
Funding: Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI)
Period: Sept. 1 2010 – Aug. 31, 2015.
Collaborators: Lund University, University of Helsinki, University of Eastern Finland, Stockholm University, The University Centre in Svalbard, UNIS, Swedish Meterorological and Hydrological Institute, AarhusUniversity Denmark, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Danish Meteorological Institute
ECONADAPT: The economics of climate change adaptation (Link: english (external))
Project aims: The aim of ECONADAPT is to provide user-orientated methodologies and evidence related to economic appraisal criteria to inform the choice of climate change adaptation actions using analysis that incorporates cross-scale governance under conditions of uncertainty. A critical theme of the proposal is therefore to support the application of adaptation economics in the period following the publication of the EU's 2013 Adaptation Strategy, focusing on key decision areas that need enhanced economic information, and on the key users of such information.
DMI's role: In collaboration with the University of East Anglia, DMI is responsible for providing factual information of expected meteorological climate change for a range of impact models, e.g. hydrological models related to fluvial flooding. We deliver data from regional climate models, mainly from the CORDEX project, and assist in taking advantage of these models, particularly with respect to uncertainty.
Funding: ECONADAPT is funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme - FP7 (P7-ENV-2013-two-stage) under Grant Agreement 603906.
Period: Oct. 2013 - Sep. 2016.
Collaborators: University of Bath (United Kingdom), Coordinator Ecologic Institut (Germany), BC3 Basque Centre for Climate Change (Spain), Internationales Institu Für Angewandte Systemanalyse (Austria), Sveriges Lantbruksuniversitet (Sweden), Stichting VU-VUMC (Netherlands), Potsdam Institu Für Klimafolgenforschung (Germany), Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui cambiamenti climatici (Italy), Wageningen University (Netherlands), University of East Anglia (United Kingdom), Paul Watkiss Associates (United Kingdom), Univerzita Karlova V Praze (Czech Republic) and JRC - Joint Research Centre (Belgium).
Participants from DMI: Ole Bøssing Christensen and Cathrine Fox Maule
ERA4CS - European Research Area for Climate Services (link: english (external))
Project aims: ERA4CS aims at developing efficient climate services in Europe to become able to cope with current and future climate variability. ERA4CS will address the research gaps that exist between climate system science and the needs of users and decision makers. The main focus will be on planning, implementing and monitoring a joint transnational call on climate services that will support the development of better tools and methods for producing, using and communicating climate information.
DMI's role: DMI participates in preparing, launching and monitoring the joint transnational call.
Funding: ERA-NET Co-fund action
Period: 1. Jan. 2016 - 31. Dec. 2020.
Collaborators: 45 partners from 18 European countries; project coordinated by Agence Nationale de la Recherche (ANR), France.
Participants from DMI: Marianne Sloth Madsen, Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen and Majken Salomon Hess
eSACP (Statistical Analysis of Climate Projections)
Project aims: To create software tools for assessing impacts of climate change at the regional, Nordic, level. The motivation is society's growing recognition that forecasts of future climate change is associated with various sources of uncertainty and that any long-term planning and decision-making dependent on a changing climate must account for this. The eSACP project develops a generic eScience tool that allows decision-makers and scientists from all fields to properly account for the inherent uncertainty when performing climate impact analyses and developing adaptation strategies. the new tool includes functionality to utilize the extensive and dynamically growing repositories of data, state-of-the-art statistical techniques to quantify the uncertainty. The tool incorporates innovative approaches to result visualization. This tool will not only be valuable for future assessments but will also assist the scientific community in making more clearly its case on the consequences of our changing climate to policy makers and the general public.
DMI's role: To provide RCM and GCM data for the tools, and interface with stakeholders nationally.
Funding: nordForsk - 700 kNOK.
Period: 2015 - 2018.
Collaborators: DMI, DTU, Norsk Rejnesentral (project PI), University of Oslo, FMI and the Bjerknes Centre.
Participants from DMI: Cathrine Fox Maule and Peter Thejll, Climate and Arctic Research.
eSTICC: eScience Tools for Investigating Climate Change at High Northern Latitudes (Link: english (external))
Project aims: The overarching goal of eSTICC is a more accurate description of the high-latitude feedback processes in the climate system via further development of the eScience tools of the climate research community. It brings together climate researchers and scientific computing experts in Nordic countries to develop eScience tools needed for more efficient use of experimental and model data, and to improve the computational efficiency and coding standards of ESMs and of the tools used for inverse modeling of emission fluxes.
DMI’s role: DMI will work on improving the interface to the model data archive (CORDEX/ENSEMBLE), improving representation of ice sheets and their surface mass balance in ESM-Ice Sheet Model coupling system, improving the performance of the ESM (i.e., EC-EARTH) for carrying out extended long (millennial time-scale) experiments.
Funding: Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI)
Period: Jan. 1, 2014 – Dec. 31, 2018
Collaborators: eSTICC is led by the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), and gathers 13 research groups from the Nordic countries working in the fields of climate research and/or eScience, including the most prolific groups from the existing Nordic Centers of Excellence CRAICC, DEFROST and SVALI.
EuMetChem COST Action ES1004: European Framework for Online Integrated Air Quality and Meteorology Modelling (link: english (external))
Project aims: Focus on a new generation of online integrated Atmospheric Chemical Transport and Meteorology (Numerical Weather Prediction and Climate) modelling with two-way interactions between different atmospheric processes including chemistry (both gases and aerosols), clouds, radiation, boundary layer, emissions, meteorology and climate. Two application areas of the integrated modelling are planned to be considered: (i) improved numerical weather prediction and chemical weather forecasting with short-term feedbacks of aerosols and chemistry on meteorological variables, and (ii) two-way interactions between atmospheric pollution/ composition and climate variability/ change. Establishment of such a European framework (involving also key American experts) will enable the EU to develop world class capabilities in integrated ACT/NWP-Climate modelling systems, including research, education and forecasting.
DMI’s role: Leading EuMetChem COST Action; Core Group and Management Committee Meetings; contributions to WG1 “Strategy and framework for online integrated modelling”, WG2 “Interactions, parameterizations and feedback mechanisms”, WG3 “Chemical data assimilation in integrated model”, WG4 “Evaluation, validation and applications” with Enviro-HIRLAM online integrated meteorology-chemistry model research and development results; organization of young scientist summer school on integrated modelling (Jul 2014, Aveiro, Portugal); hosting short-term scientific missions for young scientists.
Funding: EU Coordination Action; total budget – 600 KEu
Period: 1 Apr 2011 – 1 Mar 2015
Collaborators: Coordinator – Prof. Alexander Baklanov (DMI); COST EU 23 participants (Austria, Bulgaria, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Israel, Italy, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Serbia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK), COST neighboring countries (Ukraine, Russia, Egypt), international partners (USA, Brazil), and international organizations (JRC, ECMWF, EEA)
GREENICE: Impacts of Sea-Ice and Snow-Cover Changes on Climate, Green Growth and Society (Link: english (external))
Project aims: The main goal of GREENICE is to reduce uncertainties in the interaction among climate, society, and the cryosphere over the next decades, focusing on understanding how climate will respond to future changes in sea ice and snow cover. By means of a thorough analysis of observations and coordinated experiments with global and regional atmospheric models, GREENICE will improve the understanding of the atmospheric response to sea-ice and snow-cover changes and our ability to predict both anthropogenic and naturally-driven changes on 10-30 year timescales.
DMI’s role: DMI’s contribution to the project is investigate and modelling the response of the atmospheric circulation to changes in sea ice and snow covers using global climate model EC-EARTH.
ICE-ARC (Link: www.ice-arc.eu)
Project aims: The ICE-ARC project aims to understand and quantify the multiple stresses involved in the change in the Arctic marine environment. Particular focus is on the rapid retreat and collapse of the Arctic sea ice cover and to assess the climatic (ice, ocean, atmosphere and ecosystem), economic and social impacts of these stresses on regional and global scales.
DMI’s role: Ocean processes: ocean mixing and stratification, freshwater fluxes and fjord processes. Ice mass balance buoys for dynamics and thermodynamics, sea ice multisensory monitoring.
ice2ice (Link: coming up. See introduction video)
Project aims: ice2ice is the first concerted effort to the tackle question of the cause and future implications of past abrupt climate change in Greenland, the main hypothesis being that the Arctic and sub-Arctic sea ice cover excerts important controls on past and future Greenland temperature and ice sheet variations. In ice2ice this will be done by:
- describing the nature, timing and wxtent of abrupt events across climate archives,
- resolving mechanisms behind the sudden demise of sea ice cover,
- identifying the risk that the ongoing rapid diminution of Arctic sea ice cover could give abrupt GIS changes in the future,
- determining the impacts of such changes for the GIS and Arctic and global climate.
DMI's role: To further develop and apply global and regional Earth system models to be able to conduct experiments addressing the central question of the project. This involves, high resolution atmosphere modeling, a coupled high resolution regional climate model for the Arctic and using the global EC-Earth model. In most cases with an interactive ice sheet model (PISM) being part of the system. 3 PhD positions will form a central contribution to the project, but substantial funding is allocated to permanent staff at DMI.
Funding: EU-FP7; ERC-Synergy grant
Period: August 1st, 2014 - July 31st, 2019
Collaborators: 4 teams lead by Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, DMI: Eystein Jansen, the Bjerknes Center, University of Bergen (UiB); Kerim Nicancioglu, Department of Earth Science, UiB, and Bo M. Vinther at Niels Bohr Institute, the University of Copenhagen. ERC-Synergy project does not have a formal coordinator, but Jansen is the contact person to EU.
IMPACT2C: Quantifying projected impacts under 2°C warming (link: external)
Project aims: IMPACT2C will identify and quantify the impacts and most appropriate response strategies of a 2°C global warming for Europe and three selected vulnerable regions in other parts of the world being Africa, Bangladesh and the Maldives. IMPACT2C will provide detailed ensemble based climate change scenarios, plus statistics and derived indices, tailored to the needs of various sectors, for the time slice in which the global temperature is simulated to be 2°C above pre industrial levels. In addition IMPACT2C will provide a detailed assessment of risks, vulnerabilities, impacts and associated costs for a broad range of sectors against the background of socio economic scenarios consistent with development paths aimed at limiting global warming to 2°C. Finally IMPACT2C will develop an optimal mix of response strategies (technological, governance, capacity building) accounting for the regional differences in adaptive capacities, distinguishing between those that can be accommodated autonomously and those that require additional policy interventions.
DMI's role: DMI is to provide dynamical downscaling's of EC-Earth using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 for both Africa and Europe, and investigate methods for quantifying scenario uncertainty, model variability and model biases. In addition DMI hosts the project's data archive.
Funding: IMPACT2C is funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme - FP7 (FP7/2007-2013) under Grant Agreement No. 282746.
Period: Nov 2011 - Oct 2015.
Collaborators: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht Zentrum fur Material und Kustenforschung (Germany), Potsdam Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (Germany), Uni Research (Norway), Meteorologisk Institutt (Norway), Sveriges Meteorologiske og Hydrologiske Institut (Sweden), Joint Research Centre (Belgium), Agenzia Nazionale per le Nuove Tecnologie, L'Energia e lo Sviluppo Economico Sostenibile ENEA (Italy), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - IPSL (France), Meteo-France (France), Universitaet Graz (Austria), Joanneum Research Forschungsgesellschaft (Austria), Internationales Institut Für Angewandte Systemanalyse IIASA (Austria), Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Institut (Netherlands), Wageningen University (Netherlands), Technical University of Crete (Greece), Paul Watkiss Associates LTD (United Kingdom), Universite de Lausanne (Switzerland), University of Southampton (United Kingdom), SEI Oxford Office Limited (United Kingdom), MetOffice (United Kingdom), Ministry of Housing and Environment (Maldives), Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies Association (Bangladesh), International Water Management Institute (Sri Lanka), Stichting Wetlands International (Netherlands), World Health Organization (Switzerland), Institute of Water Modelling (Bangladesh), African Centre of Meteorological Application Development ACMAD (Niger), European Climate Forum (Gernmany).
Participants from DMI: Ole Bøssing Christensen and Cathine Fox Maule.
IMPRESSIONS - Impacts and risks from high-end scenarios: strategies for innovative solutions (link: english (external))
Project aims: IMPRESSIONS aims to advance understanding of the consequences of high-end climate and socioeconomic scenarios on local, regional as well as global scale and to evaluate how such information can be embedded within effective and integrated adaptation and mitigation decision-making processes.
DMI's role: DMI is providing tailored climate scenario data as well as guidance on the use of climate data for various types of impact assessments.
Funding: EU FP7
Period: Nov. 2013 - Oct. 2018.
Collaborators: Consortium of 24 partners from 16 countries, coordination by Dr. Paula Harrison, Lancaster Environment Centre.
Participants from DMI: Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, Marianne Sloth Madsen, Cathrine Fox Maule
IS-ENES2: Infrastructure for the European Network for Earth System modelling - Phase 2 (Link: english (external))
Project aims: IS-ENES2 is the second phase project of the distributed e-infrastructure of models, model data and metadata of the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES). This network gathers together the European modelling community working on understanding and predicting climate variability and change. IS-ENES2 combines expertise in climate modelling, computational science, data management and climate impacts. IS-ENES2 supports the ENES portal on which more information on community, services, models, data and computing can be found.
DMI's role: The role of DMI consists mainly in distributing data from the CORDEX project through acting as an ESGF datanode accesible for instance from www.esgf-data.dkrz.de. We have developed and maintain a server at cordexesg.dmi.dk and receive regional climate model data from other institutions who do not have their own ESGF server. We have also, funded by this project, taken part in the preliminary definitions necessary to join CORDEX to the existing ESGF framework for CMIP5 global model data.
Funding: IS-ENES2 is funded by the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme - FP7 (FP7-INFRASTRUCTURES-2012-1) under Grant Agreement 312979.
Period: April 2013 - March 2017.
Collaborators: Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS-IPSL (France), Deutsches Klimarechenzentrum, DKRZ (Germany), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique, CERFACS (France), Centro Euro-Meditteraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici, CMCC (Italy), The University of Reading (United Kingdom), The Met Office (United Kingdom), Science and Technology Facilities Council, STFC (United Kingdom), Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut, SMHI (Sweden), Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, KNMI (Netherlands), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften MPG/MPI-Met (Germany), Climate System Analysis Group, University of Cape Town, CSAG (South Africa), University of Manchester (United Kingdom), Institutul National de Hidroligie si Gospodarire a Apelor, INHGA (Romania), Wageningen Universiteit (Netherlands), Linköpings Universitet, LIU (Sweden), Barcelona Supercomputing Centre, BSC (Spain), Universidad de Cantabria (Spain), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft und Raumfahrt in der Helmholtz Gemeinschaft, DLR (Germany), Fundacio Institut Catala de Ciencies del Clima, IC3 (Spain), Météo France - Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, MF-CNRM (France), Universitetet i Bergen, UiB (Norway) and Meteorologisk Institutt, METNO (Norway).
Participants from DMI: Ole Bøssing Christensen and Erik Wienberg.
KLIMAKS (Klimafremskrivning af målt nedbør til afløbsteknisk anvendelse)
Project aims: 1. udvikling og validering af metode til klimafremskrivning af dynamisk regn før Danmark; 2. udarbejdelse af katalog med historiske og klimafremskrevne dimensionerings- og analysehændelser baseret på vejrradar- og regnmålerdata; 3. beregning af klimaparametre for udvalgte klimascenarier og tidhorisonter; 4. demonstration og konsekvensberegning af de under pkt. 1, 2 og 3 udviklede metoder i modelbaseret analyse af regnvandssystemers serviceniveau samt klimatilpasning.
DMI's role: Beregning af klimaparametre for udvalgte klimascenarier og tidhorisonter (using available high-resolution climate model runs within CORDEX (EUR-11)
MODEXTREME: Agriculture facing extreme climatic events (link: english (external))
Project aims: MODEXTREME has the overarching goal to help the European and non-European agriculture face extreme climatic events by improving the capability of biophysical models simulating vegetation responses to integrate climatic variability and extremes. MODEXTREME seeks to identify and integrate into simulation models the responses of main crop and grassland systems to environmental conditions associated with extreme climatic events. MODEXTREME will improve yield monitoring and forecasting systems via multiple observational constraints to be assimilated into process-based models across different climate conditions. MODEXTREME will also estimate possible trajectories of agricultural productivity in the short (during current season) to medium time horizons and associated uncertainties. This involves taking into account the genetic progress and its effects on responses to extreme environmental conditions.
DMI’s role: DMI is to provide relevant bias corrected regional climate model output for regions in five different continents. In addition DMI will produce recommendations and guidance on processing and using climate model output in crop modelling studies.
Funding: MODEXTREME is funded by the European Community’s Seventh Framework Programme – FP7 (KBBE.2013.1.4-09) under Grant Agreement No. 613817, 2013-2016.
Period: Nov 2013 – Oct 2016
Collaborators: Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Consiglio per la Ricerca e la Sperimentazione in Agricoltura, Universidad de Cordoba, Universita Degli Studi di Milano, Eidgenössisches Departement für Wirtschaft, Bildung und Forschung, University of East Anglia, Instituto Superiore da Agronomia, Democritus University of Thrace, Softeco Sismat SRL, INRA Transfert S.A., Ukrainian Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuaria, Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria, University of Pretoria, Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning CAAS, Washington State University.
Participants from DMI: Ole Bøssing Christensen, Cathrine Fox Maule and Wilhelm May
NACLIM (Link: www.naclim.eu)
Project aims: The North Atlantic Ocean is one of the most important drivers for the global ocean circulation and its variability on time scales beyond inter-annual. Global climate variability is to a large extent triggered by changes in the North Atlantic sea surface state. The quality and skill of climate predictions depends crucially on a good knowledge of the northern sea surface temperatures (SST) and sea ice distributions. On a regional scale, these parameters strongly impact on weather and climate in Europe, determining precipitation patterns and strengths as well as changes in temperature and wind patterns. NACLIM aims at investigating and quantifying the predictability on interannual to decadal time scales of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic Ocean surface state (SST and sea ice) variability and change.
DMI’s role: To quantify the uncertainty of state-of-the-art climate forecasts by evaluating the ability to model the most important oceanic and atmospheric processes in the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans by comparing key quantities with observations.
Project aims: The polar portal communicates Arctic research and monitoring by Danish researchers to the public. Daily updated products on ice sheet, sea ice, permafrost and weather give easy and fast access to the newest knowledge.
DMI’s role: DMI contributes as project coordinator and with products on the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance, the sea ice and Greenland permafrost. The technical development and hosting of the portal is done at DMI.
Funding: DANCEA / Danish Energy Agency
Period: Jan 1, 2013 – Nov 1, 2017
Collaborators: GEUS, DTU-Space, DTU-Byg
Participants from DMI: Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, Kristian P. Nielsen, Martin Olesen, Carsten A. Ludwigsen, Katrine K. Andersen, Nicolai Kliem, Matilde Brandt Jensen, Gorm Dybkjær, Till Andreas Rasmussen, Rasmus Tage Tonboe, Jacob L. Høyer and Martin Stendel
RETAIN - Understanding and predicting non-linear change in the permeability of Greenland firn
Project aims: This project will 1) develop a percolation/retention scheme based on inverse modeling of shallow ice core data; 2) evaluate non-linearities in ice sheet melt water runoff; and 3) assess feedback mechanisms between atmosphere and surface properties (i.e. albedo) using a regional climate model applied to the past and future. We will thus achieve a more complete understanding of the ice sheet's past, present, and future climate response and its global sea level impact.
DMI's role: Implement a new percolation/retention scheme into the regional climate model HIRHAM5 and asses feedback mechanisms between atmosphere and surface properties.
RiskChange – Risk-based design in a changing climate (Link: english (external))
Project aims: The RiskChange project focuses on the changing risks to society from climate change and seeks to develop an analysis and decision support tool that can be used to assess future risks and necessary investments in climate change adaptation. RiskChange will establish a scientific basis for design and adaptation of critical infrastructure, based on recent knowledge of changes in climate extremes. Statistical methods will be developed to quantify the expected changes in climate extremes taking into account the uncertainties related to climate forcing scenarios, climate modelling and downscaling. The project will contribute to the development of planning and decision support tools for local and central authorities and will form the basis for establishing design guidelines and associated tools for the industry.
DMI’s role: DMI is producing high-resolution dynamical downscaling simulations for Northern Europe and statistical analysis. In addition, DMI hosts and distributes the project’s regional climate model output produced by both DMI and the Bjerknes Center for Climate Research.
Funding: Danish Council for Strategic Research.
Period: Jan 2011 – Dec 2014.
Collaborators: DHI, DTU Environment, DTU Management Engineering, Det Norske Veritas, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Niels Bohr Institute, City of Copenhagen.
Participants from DMI: Cathrine Fox Maule and Ole Bøssing Christensen
SAMAR - Short and long term ablation modelling based on Automatic Weather Station data and Regional Climate Model
Project aims: The overall goal of the project SAMAR is to improve predictive capabilities of surface energy balance (SEB) models both on short time scales (days and weeks), that are useful for example for operation of hydroelectric power plants and for making flood warnings, and on century time scale for improved projections of the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise. To achieve this overall goal we will take advantage of the wealth of data available in Iceland at IES, and three types of ablation models with various spatial extent and resolution. An SEB model that has been applied for points will be extended to a distributed surface module in HIRHAM5. To include the response of the glacier to the changes in the SEB, HIRHAM5 is coupled to the dynamic ice sheet model PISM for future projections. The objectives of the project are defined as follows:
Objective 1: Develop a distributed SEB model for Icelandic glaciers
Objective 2: Assess the sensitivity of the modelled ablation to variation in albedo and other energy balance components in the model
Objective 3: Validate the SEB module of HIRHAM5 with available observations from AWS and contribute to further development of this module
Objective 4: Validate and apply the coupled HIRHAM5-PISM model on Icelandic glaciers on both short and long time scales as well as with different spatial model resolutions
DMI’s role: Improved parameterisation of SEB in HIRHAM and apply the model to Icelandic glaciers using the PISM Ice Sheet model coupled to HIRHAM
StratoClim: Stratospheric and upper tropospheric processes for better climate predictions (link: english (external))
Project aims: StratoClim will produce more reliable projections of climate change and stratospheric ozone by a better understanding and improved representation of key processes in the Upper Troposphere and Stratosphere (UTS). This will be achieved by an integrated approach bridging observations from dedicated field activities, process modelling on all scales, and global modelling with a suite of chemistry climate models (CCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs).
DMI’s role: We will focus on the coupling between the stratosphere and the troposphere in extra-tropical winters. The definition of sudden stratospheric warmings will be reassessed as well as the mechanism of the stratosphere/troposphere coupling.
SVALI: The Stability and Variations of Arctic Land Ice (Link: english (external))
Project aims: SVALI is a multidisciplinary and cross-national science collaboration that aims to improve understanding of the stability and dynamics of the cryosphere, and the implementation of new and improved process formulations that have not been adequately addressed in current Earth System Models (ESM) before, by integration of observations, process studies and modelling.
DMI’s role: DMI will contribute to the project with better representation of the surface mass balance of Greenland ice sheets and better simulation of the ice sheet changes in future, using global and regional ESMs (i.e., EC-EARTH and HIRHAM) and their coupled system with the Greenland ice sheet model (PISM).
Funding: Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI)
Period: Sept. 1 2010 – Aug. 31, 2015.
Collaborators: SVALI team consists of 18 research groups from all Nordic countries, led by the Department of geosciences, University of Oslo.
Time series analysis of arctic tropospheric ozone as short lived climate force
Project aims: Investigation of the long time series from Sodankylä, Ny Ålesund, Ittoqqortoormiit and Pituffik to investigate the tropospheric content of ozone to determine a baseline for the arctic tropospheric ozone through the last 25 years. Determination is important if a long term monitoring program is established for short lived climate components.
DMI’s role: Preparation of the time series for which DMI is responsible (Ittoqqortoormiit and Pituffik) and statistical analysis.