As part of the Commonwealth of the Realm of Denmark DMI has a long tradition studying, monitoring and forecasting Greenland’s weather, atmosphere, ocean, ice and climate. Further, climate change is more pronounced in the Arctic than almost everywhere else on the globe. It is therefore important to assess potential future Arctic changes using climate models.
Many lines of research at the DMI are centered around the Arctic. DMI is responsible for forecasting the weather, ocean , ice and wave conditions for Greenland, and thus runs numerical weather, ocean-ice and wave prediction models for Greenland and provides official forecasts. DMI participates in a number of climate studies in the Arctic, including coupled atmosphere -ice sheet modelling as well as ocean and sea ice studies with focus on Greenland fjords, the surrounding waters and the Arctic Ocean.
Atmosphere and ocean climate models are run over numerous Arctic domains and coupled atmosphere, ocean, ice sheet and permafrost models are developed. The arctic stratosphere, which is determining for the ozone layer over the Northern Hemisphere, is a long-standing research area at DMI. Finally, DMI researchers are part of the team behind the outreach web site polarportal.org and take part in several expert groups on short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) in the Arctic.
Increasing economic activities in the Arctic waters such as maritime transport, offshore oil and gas exploitation and fishery have raised new research challenges such as e-navigation, environmental protection and ice service. Combing modeling, remote sensing and in-situ monitoring, DMI has been actively developing integrated Arctic System science for serving a variety of social benefit areas.
Air quality in the Nordic countries and climate changes in the Arctic
Project aims: Investigation of the long ozonesounding time series from Arctic stations to investigate the transport of ozone and/or ozone precursors over the frontal zones between the Polar Cell and the Ferrell Cell.
DMI's role: Preparation of the time series and statistical analysis.
ARCPATH (Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies)
Project aims: To improve Arctic climate prediction by reducing uncertainties originating from changes in the cryosphere and the ocean, and to explore Arctic climate sensitivity to anthropogenic forcing; To increase understanding and reduce uncertainties regarding how changes in climate interact with multiple societal factors including the development of local and regional adaptation measures; To supply this knowledge as potential “pathways to action” to the specific Arctic regions singled out for special focus in the project.
DMI's role: DMI will work together with SMHI to develop the EC-Earth seasonal to decadal prediction system with ocean+sea ice assimilation; DMI will also perform high resolution prediction experiments to assess the importance of higher model resolution for better climate services for the Arctic communities.
CARRA (Copernicus Arctic Regional ReAnalysis)
Project aims: A 24-year reanalysis with the same regional model setup will be implemented and run on two complementary domains to cover the European sector of the Arctic. This will be done with the HARMONIE-AROME model running at 2.5 km resolution. The project is planned for four years duration and starts with a design and setup phase, then the reanalysis enters production in Month 20. The reanalysis dataset will be continuously updated to provide a complete 24 years time series before the end of the project. The work also includes a proof-of-concept Pan-Arctic reanalysis to be run for one year duration.velopment of road weather forecasting system; 24/7 operations.
DMI's role: DMI leads WP1, the work package on system development. DMI participates in all most task within WP2, the work package on input data, and will lead the WP2 tasks 2.1, 2.2 and 2.3 on physiography, glacier input and albedo, and SST and sea ice, respectively. Additionally, DMI will be responsible for the reanalysis production (part of WP3) for one of two CARRA model domains. This domain covers Greenland, Iceland and a few of the adjacent islands in the high Arctic. Met.no will be responsible for the reanalysis production in the other domain that covers the Barents Sea, Svalbard and Northern Scandinavia. Finally, DMI will contribute to WP4 on user guidance and support, in which documentation and guidance on the available products from the service will be madeorecasting of weather dependent road conditions, in particular the formation of ice.
Funding: The Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) programme, which is a programme initiated by the EU commission.
Period: Sept. 2017 - Aug. 2021.
Collaborators: Met.no (det norske meteorologiske institutt), DMI, SMHI, Meteo France, IMO (Veðurstofa Íslands), FMI.
Participants from DMI: Kristian Pagh Nielsen, Xiaohua Yang, Jacob L. Høyer, Rasmus Tage Tonboe, Ruth Mottram, Bjarne Amstrup, Kai Sattler, Mats Dahlbom, Pia Nielsen-Englyst, Emy Alerskans, Peter L. Langen
Data base for climate adaptation needs in Greenland
Project aims: The data base will consist of climate scenarios for Greenland, exemplified by a series of basic climate indices presented for the non-ice covered land area and coastal areas of Greenland. A catalogue presenting the likely change at near term, mid-century and by the end of the 21st century will be constructed and presented on a web-site. The data will be extracted and presented in a report alongside various assessments of the likely uncertainty ranges.
DMI's role: DMI will carry out HIRHAM climate scenarios using HIRHAM at 5 km resolution and produce a report documenting these in a format useful for decision making in Greenland, including those by the Self Government. The results will be presented on a workshop organized together with the Self Government at Katuaq in Nuuk in November 2015.
Funding: DANCEA / Danish Energy Agency and VEK / Greenland Ministry of Nature, Environment and Justice
Period: Jan 1, 2015 – Dec 31, 2015
Collaborators: Government of Greenland, Ministry of Nature, Environment and Justice; Asiaq
Defrost (Link: www.ncoe-defrost.org)
Project aims: The aim of DEFROST (Impact of a changing cryosphere - Depicting ecosystem-climate feedbacks from permafrost, snow and ice) is to understand how climate change induced changes in the cryosphere influence the ecosystem/geosphere processes which directly affect climate. We will focus on key terrestrial, lacustrine and marine cryospheric components that have the potential for giving rise to substantial changes in climate feedback mechanisms both in terms of surface-atmosphere energy exchange and exchanges of greenhouse gases. DEFROST seeks to bridge existing gaps between climate modeling, cryospheric science, and Arctic ecosystem science.
DMI’s role: Improved parameterisation of permafrost, snow and ice related processes is being incorporated in the existing Regional Climate Models RCA (Sweden), HIRHAM (Denmark) and later in HARMONIE (International). The impact on changes in regional cryospheric/climate scenarios is investigated, beneficial also to the DEFROST user community and in terms of impacts and adaptation, by a provision of more elaborated regional scenarios. A novel element is the implementation of a sub-sea permafrost model in the HIRHAM-HYCOM coupled system for the Arctic based on the GIPL permafrost model develop in UAF in Alaska
Funding: Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI)
Period: Sept. 1 2010 – Aug. 31, 2015.
Collaborators: Lund University, University of Helsinki, University of Eastern Finland, Stockholm University, The University Centre in Svalbard, UNIS, Swedish Meterorological and Hydrological Institute, AarhusUniversity Denmark, Greenland Institute of Natural Resources, Danish Meteorological Institute
Project aims: Efficiensea2 aims at providing a communication frame work - the "Maritime Cloud" which will enhance information sharing in and around the maritime sector for smarter offshore traffic management. This will be used to improve e-navigation which will benefit safety, emissions, delays etc.
DMI's role: DMI will provide and develope the met-ocean data for Arctic and Baltic seas. This includes ice charts, ice bergs and forecast of a variety of ice/ocean parameters. The data will be included into the maritime cloud.
eSTICC: eScience Tools for Investigating Climate Change at High Northern Latitudes (Link: english (external))
Project aims: The overarching goal of eSTICC is a more accurate description of the high-latitude feedback processes in the climate system via further development of the eScience tools of the climate research community. It brings together climate researchers and scientific computing experts in Nordic countries to develop eScience tools needed for more efficient use of experimental and model data, and to improve the computational efficiency and coding standards of ESMs and of the tools used for inverse modeling of emission fluxes.
DMI’s role: DMI will work on improving the interface to the model data archive (CORDEX/ENSEMBLE), improving representation of ice sheets and their surface mass balance in ESM-Ice Sheet Model coupling system, improving the performance of the ESM (i.e., EC-EARTH) for carrying out extended long (millennial time-scale) experiments.
Funding: Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI)
Period: Jan. 1, 2014 – Dec. 31, 2018
Collaborators: eSTICC is led by the Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), and gathers 13 research groups from the Nordic countries working in the fields of climate research and/or eScience, including the most prolific groups from the existing Nordic Centers of Excellence CRAICC, DEFROST and SVALI.
GREENICE: Impacts of Sea-Ice and Snow-Cover Changes on Climate, Green Growth and Society (Link: english (external))
Project aims: The main goal of GREENICE is to reduce uncertainties in the interaction among climate, society, and the cryosphere over the next decades, focusing on understanding how climate will respond to future changes in sea ice and snow cover. By means of a thorough analysis of observations and coordinated experiments with global and regional atmospheric models, GREENICE will improve the understanding of the atmospheric response to sea-ice and snow-cover changes and our ability to predict both anthropogenic and naturally-driven changes on 10-30 year timescales.
DMI’s role: DMI’s contribution to the project is investigate and modelling the response of the atmospheric circulation to changes in sea ice and snow covers using global climate model EC-EARTH.
IASI IST - Ice Surface Temperature from Metop Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer
Project aims: The aim of the study is firstly to compile an inventory and assessment of in situ datasets relevant for the validation of Ice Surface Temperature (IST) from IASI with a primary focus in the Arctic. Secondly, evaluation and validation of the existing sea-ice surface temperature from the EUMETSAT IASI Level-2 product. Finally, the study will address a secondary validation of the ice surface temperatures over land surfaces from IASI.
DMI's role: DMI is the sole project contractor and hence, DMI will do the work in close collaboration with EUMETSAT project team.
ICE-ARC (Link: www.ice-arc.eu)
Project aims: The ICE-ARC project aims to understand and quantify the multiple stresses involved in the change in the Arctic marine environment. Particular focus is on the rapid retreat and collapse of the Arctic sea ice cover and to assess the climatic (ice, ocean, atmosphere and ecosystem), economic and social impacts of these stresses on regional and global scales.
DMI’s role: Ocean processes: ocean mixing and stratification, freshwater fluxes and fjord processes. Ice mass balance buoys for dynamics and thermodynamics, sea ice multisensory monitoring.
ice2ice (Link: coming up. See introduction video)
Project aims: ice2ice is the first concerted effort to the tackle question of the cause and future implications of past abrupt climate change in Greenland, the main hypothesis being that the Arctic and sub-Arctic sea ice cover excerts important controls on past and future Greenland temperature and ice sheet variations. In ice2ice this will be done by:
- describing the nature, timing and wxtent of abrupt events across climate archives,
- resolving mechanisms behind the sudden demise of sea ice cover,
- identifying the risk that the ongoing rapid diminution of Arctic sea ice cover could give abrupt GIS changes in the future,
- determining the impacts of such changes for the GIS and Arctic and global climate.
DMI's role: To further develop and apply global and regional Earth system models to be able to conduct experiments addressing the central question of the project. This involves, high resolution atmosphere modeling, a coupled high resolution regional climate model for the Arctic and using the global EC-Earth model. In most cases with an interactive ice sheet model (PISM) being part of the system. 3 PhD positions will form a central contribution to the project, but substantial funding is allocated to permanent staff at DMI.
Funding: EU-FP7; ERC-Synergy grant
Period: August 1st, 2014 - July 31st, 2019
Collaborators: 4 teams lead by Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, DMI: Eystein Jansen, the Bjerknes Center, University of Bergen (UiB); Kerim Nicancioglu, Department of Earth Science, UiB, and Bo M. Vinther at Niels Bohr Institute, the University of Copenhagen. ERC-Synergy project does not have a formal coordinator, but Jansen is the contact person to EU.
Monitoring the Ozone Layer and the Solar UV radiation in Greenland (link: danish (external))
Project aims: To continue the monitoring that was started in the early 90'es in order to fulfill the danish obligations to the "Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer". Part of the network for the Detection of Atmospheric Compostion Change (NDACC).
DMI’s role: To measure the Ozone Layer and the solar UV radiation at three locations in Greenland, at Thule/Pituffik, Scoresbysund/Ittoqqortoormiut and Sondre Stromfjord/Kangerlussuaq.
Nordic CarboNord: Impact of Black Carbon on Air Quality and Climate in Northern Europe and Arctic
Project aims: are to provide new information on distribution and effects of black carbon in Northern Europe and Arctic, evaluate the reliability of related model-predictions, and suggest the policy-relevant approaches of reducing the climate- and air quality forcing by black carbon.
DMI's role: simulations with regional on-line integrated meteorology-chemistry model Envire-HIRLAM and studies of two-way interactions between pollutants and meteorological / climate process for the Nordic countries / European Arctic.
Funding: NordForsk - Research Project; total budget - 1.58 Mnok (DMI/UoC - 300 Knok)
Period: 1 Jan 2014 - 31 Dec 2016.
Collaborators: 5 partners from 4 Nordic countries: Finnish Meteorological Institute (Coordinator - Prof. Mikhail Sofiev; Finland), Swedish Meteorology and Hydrology Institute, Norwegian Meteorologiacal Institute, University of Århus (Denmark), Danish Meteorological Institute.
OSI SAF (Link: www.osi-saf.org )
Project aims: Project aims: For complementing its Central Facilities capability in Darmstadt and taking more benefit from specialized expertise in Member States, EUMETSAT created Satellite Application Facilities (SAFs) based on co-operation between several institutes and hosted by a National Meteorological Service.
The Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility (OSI SAF) is an answer to the common requirements of meteorology and oceanography for comprehensive information on the ocean-atmosphere interface. One of the objectives of the OSI SAF is to produce, control and distribute OSI SAF operational products in near real-time using available satellite data.
DMI’s role: DMI is part of the High Latitude center (in cooperation with met.no) responsible for the production and distribution of the OSI SAF Sea Ice products, in particular: global sea ice concentration, global sea ice emissivity, medium resolution ice drift, and ice surface temperature.
Period: Mar. 2012 - Feb. 2017 (Continuous Development and Operational Phase 2).
Collaborators: EUMETSAT, met.no, Meteo-France, IFREMER, KNMI.
Project aims: The aim of Polar Ice is to develop a next generation sea ice information service by integrating and building on a wide range of existing European and national funded activities which incorporate many of the required components. Considerable investment has enabled development of key parts of a complete sea ice service chain. Polar Ice will link these together, fill known gaps and ensure a robust operational service.
DMI’s role: Delivery of ice forecasts and ice pressure products.
Project aims: The polar portal communicates Arctic research and monitoring by Danish researchers to the public. Daily updated products on ice sheet, sea ice, permafrost and weather give easy and fast access to the newest knowledge.
DMI’s role: DMI contributes as project coordinator and with products on the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance, the sea ice and Greenland permafrost. The technical development and hosting of the portal is done at DMI.
Funding: DANCEA / Danish Energy Agency
Period: Jan 1, 2013 – Nov 1, 2017
Collaborators: GEUS, DTU-Space, DTU-Byg
Participants from DMI: Peter L. Langen, Ruth Mottram, Kristian P. Nielsen, Martin Olesen, Carsten A. Ludwigsen, Katrine K. Andersen, Nicolai Kliem, Matilde Brandt Jensen, Gorm Dybkjær, Till Andreas Rasmussen, Rasmus Tage Tonboe, Jacob L. Høyer and Martin Stendel
RETAIN - Understanding and predicting non-linear change in the permeability of Greenland firn
Project aims: This project will 1) develop a percolation/retention scheme based on inverse modeling of shallow ice core data; 2) evaluate non-linearities in ice sheet melt water runoff; and 3) assess feedback mechanisms between atmosphere and surface properties (i.e. albedo) using a regional climate model applied to the past and future. We will thus achieve a more complete understanding of the ice sheet's past, present, and future climate response and its global sea level impact.
DMI's role: Implement a new percolation/retention scheme into the regional climate model HIRHAM5 and asses feedback mechanisms between atmosphere and surface properties.
SAMAR - Short and long term ablation modelling based on Automatic Weather Station data and Regional Climate Model
Project aims: The overall goal of the project SAMAR is to improve predictive capabilities of surface energy balance (SEB) models both on short time scales (days and weeks), that are useful for example for operation of hydroelectric power plants and for making flood warnings, and on century time scale for improved projections of the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise. To achieve this overall goal we will take advantage of the wealth of data available in Iceland at IES, and three types of ablation models with various spatial extent and resolution. An SEB model that has been applied for points will be extended to a distributed surface module in HIRHAM5. To include the response of the glacier to the changes in the SEB, HIRHAM5 is coupled to the dynamic ice sheet model PISM for future projections. The objectives of the project are defined as follows:
Objective 1: Develop a distributed SEB model for Icelandic glaciers
Objective 2: Assess the sensitivity of the modelled ablation to variation in albedo and other energy balance components in the model
Objective 3: Validate the SEB module of HIRHAM5 with available observations from AWS and contribute to further development of this module
Objective 4: Validate and apply the coupled HIRHAM5-PISM model on Icelandic glaciers on both short and long time scales as well as with different spatial model resolutions
DMI’s role: Improved parameterisation of SEB in HIRHAM and apply the model to Icelandic glaciers using the PISM Ice Sheet model coupled to HIRHAM
SVALI: The Stability and Variations of Arctic Land Ice (Link: english (external))
Project aims: SVALI is a multidisciplinary and cross-national science collaboration that aims to improve understanding of the stability and dynamics of the cryosphere, and the implementation of new and improved process formulations that have not been adequately addressed in current Earth System Models (ESM) before, by integration of observations, process studies and modelling.
DMI’s role: DMI will contribute to the project with better representation of the surface mass balance of Greenland ice sheets and better simulation of the ice sheet changes in future, using global and regional ESMs (i.e., EC-EARTH and HIRHAM) and their coupled system with the Greenland ice sheet model (PISM).
Funding: Nordic Top-level Research Initiative (TRI)
Period: Sept. 1 2010 – Aug. 31, 2015.
Collaborators: SVALI team consists of 18 research groups from all Nordic countries, led by the Department of geosciences, University of Oslo.
Time series analysis of arctic tropospheric ozone as short lived climate force
Project aims: Investigation of the long time series from Sodankylä, Ny Ålesund, Ittoqqortoormiit and Pituffik to investigate the tropospheric content of ozone to determine a baseline for the arctic tropospheric ozone through the last 25 years. Determination is important if a long term monitoring program is established for short lived climate components.
DMI’s role: Preparation of the time series for which DMI is responsible (Ittoqqortoormiit and Pituffik) and statistical analysis.